SafeBets.world chief predicts $58bn shakeout for prediction betting giants
Alex Konanykhin, founder of SafeBets.world, has forecast a dramatic valuation correction for Kalshi and Polymarket as scrutiny grows over user losses and public trust in prediction markets.
- Published
- Length
- 281 words, 1 min read
Automated report. This article was drafted with AI assistance from the sources listed below, without a human writing step. Gambling News labels every article produced this way. A person is answerable for it: if something here is wrong, write to editor@gamblingnews.co.uk and we will correct it on the page and say what changed.
The prediction betting sector, which drew significant attention during the US midterm elections, is facing renewed scrutiny over its sustainability and credibility, according to comments from a rival platform executive.
Alex Konanykhin, founder and chief executive of SafeBets.world, used a keynote address in Las Vegas to argue that the combined valuation of Kalshi and Polymarket, currently estimated at around $61 billion, could collapse to as little as $3 billion if investors begin pricing the platforms in line with established gambling operators rather than fintech or data companies.
Trust and losses in focus
Konanykhin’s projection follows two pieces of independent research cited in connection with the sector. A Brennan Center study found that only 29% of registered voters believe election-related prediction markets accurately reflect public opinion, raising questions about their value as forecasting tools. Separately, reporting by the Associated Press found that 69% of Polymarket users had lost money on the platform, adding to concerns about the business model’s durability for retail participants.
A competitor’s view
As the head of a rival prediction betting operator, Konanykhin’s intervention places him in direct competition with the two companies he has singled out. His argument centres on the idea that once prediction markets are assessed using the same metrics applied to conventional betting and gambling firms, their current valuations will prove difficult to justify.
The comments come at a time when prediction markets have expanded rapidly, drawing both mainstream attention and investor interest around major political events such as the midterms. Whether that momentum translates into long-term commercial viability, or triggers the correction Konanykhin anticipates, remains to be seen as regulators, investors and users continue to weigh the sector’s reliability and risk profile.